Newsweek: Taiwan leans away from China



Taiwan leans away from China
December 12th, 2006 *By Jonathan Adams* Taiwan�s elections revealed an unexpected groundswell of support for the Independence Party, dashing hopes for reconciliation with the Mainland. Dec. 12, 2006 - There�s a phrase in Chinese for Taiwan�s political divide: lan tian, lu di (or �blue sky, green ground�). The north is the base of the China-friendly Kuomintang and its allies, the �blue� camp, which traces its heritage to the mainland and dreams of a reunified China. The south is the stronghold of the pro-independence �greens,� who emphasize the island�s distinct culture and history, and seek to cement its independence. Heaven and earth have rarely been so far apart. Last Saturday, the island�s two main camps split elections that were widely seen as a stage-setter for the key 2008 presidential vote. In the south, the pro-independence party won the mayor�s office in Kaohsiung by a nose, in a race that�s still being disputed. In the north, the KMT won, but for the Taipei mayor�s seat, the �green� candidate, Frank Hsieh, did far better than expected and took a respectable 41 percent of the vote. Both results surprised observers, who had expected a KMT sweep in the wake of corruption scandals that have bedeviled the island�s pro-independence president, Chen Shui-bian. Indeed, the KMT had already been seen as likely to win back the presidency in 2008, but Saturday�s results could put these prospects in serious jeopardy. If the election presages a KMT loss in 2008, the repercussions will be felt far beyond Taiwan�s shores. Business leaders, both Taiwanese and foreign, have had high hopes for KMT�s much-hyped chairman Ma Ying-jeou. Ma has vowed to expand cross-strait economic links to revive the island�s stagnant economy. A Ma victory in 2008 would also come as a relief for Beijing, which would like nothing better than to see the pro-independence party driven from power just ahead of the summer Olympics. And Washington, after more than six years of trying to restrain Chen�s nationalism, would welcome the more moderate Ma, who promises to keep all quiet in the Taiwan Strait. Saturday�s election is a �major defeat for Ma,� said George Tsai, a professor of international relations at Taipei�s National Chengchi University. �This result shows that if the KMT wants to win the next elections, they have to side with or respond to Taiwan identity�otherwise they have no chance.� That could be a tall order for Ma. To be sure, he�s still popular on the island, and recent accusations that he misused mayoral funds have only slightly sullied his anti-corruption image. But the Hong Kong-born Ma is seen by some as out of touch with the laobaixing�the common people�and with southerners. He speaks stilted Taiwanese, the local dialect and language of the street. And he�s a product of Taipei, where descendants of the mainlanders that fled China with the KMT in the late 1940s still dominate. Saturday�s elections have shown that Ma may also be out of touch in his vision of Taiwan�s accommodation and eventual unification with China�and it could turn out to be his political Achilles heel. Ma backs a cool version of his party�s traditional �greater China� nationalism. In the south�and apparently in much of the north, too�Taiwanese identity and ideology are still important. �[Now] people will say that Ma Ying-jeou�s charisma can�t cross the Jhuoshuei River and reach into southern Taiwan,� said Lo Chih-cheng, a political analyst at Taipei�s Soochow University. While the KMT has no strong alternative to Ma for 2008, his poorer-than-expected showing on Saturday provides a boost to two strong potential presidential candidates on the pro-independence side: Hsieh, who did better than expected in Taipei, and Su Tseng-chang, the gruff, no-nonsense premier who is a son of the south and boasts broad government experience. Despite their party�s declining support in the last two years, Saturday�s result shows it can�t be written off: its faithful�particularly in the south�tend to rally to its side in times of perceived crisis. Meanwhile, the results are expected to embolden Chen to press forward with one of his pet proposals: sweeping constitutional revision. Although there�s little chance of success�revisions must be approved by three-quarters of the legislature, which is controlled by the opposition�Chen�s pursuit of reform may ruffle China�s feathers. �The mainland is on guard,� said Xu Shiquan, the vice president of the National Society of Taiwan Studies in Beijing. �If Mr. Chen pushes forward his claims through so-called �constitutional reengineering� despite warnings, this would be serious business.� That�s a typical line from China�and one we could be hearing a lot more of in 2007.

Taiwan leans away from China

December 12th, 2006

By Jonathan Adams

Taiwan�s elections revealed an unexpected groundswell of support for the Independence Party, dashing hopes for reconciliation with the Mainland.

Dec. 12, 2006 - There�s a phrase in Chinese for Taiwan�s political divide: lan tian, lu di (or �blue sky, green ground�). The north is the base of the China-friendly Kuomintang and its allies, the �blue� camp, which traces its heritage to the mainland and dreams of a reunified China. The south is the stronghold of the pro-independence �greens,� who emphasize the island�s distinct culture and history, and seek to cement its independence.

Heaven and earth have rarely been so far apart. Last Saturday, the island�s two main camps split elections that were widely seen as a stage-setter for the key 2008 presidential vote. In the south, the pro-independence party won the mayor�s office in Kaohsiung by a nose, in a race that�s still being disputed. In the north, the KMT won, but for the Taipei mayor�s seat, the �green� candidate, Frank Hsieh, did far better than expected and took a respectable 41 percent of the vote.

Both results surprised observers, who had expected a KMT sweep in the wake of corruption scandals that have bedeviled the island�s pro-independence president, Chen Shui-bian. Indeed, the KMT had already been seen as likely to win back the presidency in 2008, but Saturday�s results could put these prospects in serious jeopardy.

If the election presages a KMT loss in 2008, the repercussions will be felt far beyond Taiwan�s shores. Business leaders, both Taiwanese and foreign, have had high hopes for KMT�s much-hyped chairman Ma Ying-jeou. Ma has vowed to expand cross-strait economic links to revive the island�s stagnant economy. A Ma victory in 2008 would also come as a relief for Beijing, which would like nothing better than to see the pro-independence party driven from power just ahead of the summer Olympics. And Washington, after more than six years of trying to restrain Chen�s nationalism, would welcome the more moderate Ma, who promises to keep all quiet in the Taiwan Strait. Saturday�s election is a �major defeat for Ma,� said George Tsai, a professor of international relations at Taipei�s National Chengchi University. �This result shows that if the KMT wants to win the next elections, they have to side with or respond to Taiwan identity�otherwise they have no chance.�

That could be a tall order for Ma. To be sure, he�s still popular on the island, and recent accusations that he misused mayoral funds have only slightly sullied his anti-corruption image. But the Hong Kong-born Ma is seen by some as out of touch with the laobaixing�the common people�and with southerners. He speaks stilted Taiwanese, the local dialect and language of the street. And he�s a product of Taipei, where descendants of the mainlanders that fled China with the KMT in the late 1940s still dominate.

Saturday�s elections have shown that Ma may also be out of touch in his vision of Taiwan�s accommodation and eventual unification with China�and it could turn out to be his political Achilles heel. Ma backs a cool version of his party�s traditional �greater China� nationalism. In the south�and apparently in much of the north, too�Taiwanese identity and ideology are still important. �[Now] people will say that Ma Ying-jeou�s charisma can�t cross the Jhuoshuei River and reach into southern Taiwan,� said Lo Chih-cheng, a political analyst at Taipei�s Soochow University.

While the KMT has no strong alternative to Ma for 2008, his poorer-than-expected showing on Saturday provides a boost to two strong potential presidential candidates on the pro-independence side: Hsieh, who did better than expected in Taipei, and Su Tseng-chang, the gruff, no-nonsense premier who is a son of the south and boasts broad government experience. Despite their party�s declining support in the last two years, Saturday�s result shows it can�t be written off: its faithful�particularly in the south�tend to rally to its side in times of perceived crisis.

Meanwhile, the results are expected to embolden Chen to press forward with one of his pet proposals: sweeping constitutional revision. Although there�s little chance of success�revisions must be approved by three-quarters of the legislature, which is controlled by the opposition�Chen�s pursuit of reform may ruffle China�s feathers. �The mainland is on guard,� said Xu Shiquan, the vice president of the National Society of Taiwan Studies in Beijing. �If Mr. Chen pushes forward his claims through so-called �constitutional reengineering� despite warnings, this would be serious business.� That�s a typical line from China�and one we could be hearing a lot more of in 2007.