Economist: Has China blundered?



Asia
Taiwan and China Has China blundered? 31 March 2005 From the Economist Print Edition CHINA may already be regretting its decision to adopt an anti-secession law aimed at keeping Taiwan in check. For Taiwan's independence-minded president, Chen Shui-bian, it has been a political boost, enabling him to rally hundreds of thousands of people last weekend in one of the island's biggest ever demonstrations. And it has introduced Taiwan�hitherto mainly a problem between China and America�as a tricky new factor in China's relations with the European Union. Privately, Chinese officials say the bill, which was adopted by China's rubber-stamp parliament on March 14th, arose from the perception last year that Mr Chen was likely to gain control of the legislature in polls last December, dislodging the Kuomintang (KMT) and its pro-unification allies. Mr Chen, the theory went, would then step up his efforts to assert Taiwan's independence. Unexpectedly, the electorate disappointed Mr Chen. But the political momentum in China to adopt a bill threatening war against a secessionist Taiwan proved unstoppable, or so officials now say. They may have hoped that by keeping the law's wording in line with China's existing policy on Taiwan, repercussions abroad would be minimal and that Taiwan itself would sulkily brush it off. China certainly did not intend to hand Mr Chen a political gift. The huge protest march in Taipei on March 26th, which Mr Chen attended, enabled him to demonstrate rare solidarity between supporters of formal independence and those who want to keep the status quo. Mr Chen's loss of support among the latter group had caused his party's difficulties in the recent polls. Pro-independence activists had been upset by Mr Chen's post-election moves to reach out to China. And China probably did not anticipate the bill's impact in the European Union, where its passage is now being cited by some officials as grounds for delaying plans to lift a 16-year-old embargo on weapons sales to China. Shi Yinhong of Renmin University of China in Beijing says relations between China and the European Union, hitherto largely unfettered by the differences over security issues that mar ties between China and America, have suddenly become �much more complicated�. But all is not lost. Mr Chen did not make any speech at the demonstration, clearly to avoid raising tensions further. And the KMT, calculating that the public would still prefer to avoid confrontation with China, has gone ahead with a goodwill trip to the mainland this week by the party's vice-chairman, Chiang Pin-kung. It is the first by an official KMT delegation to the mainland since 1949, when the party lost the civil war to the communists. Philip Yang of National Taiwan University in Taipei says that after a few weeks, Mr Chen, mindful of the need to capture the political middle ground, is likely to resume efforts to establish air links with China. China, eager to show that the law is not that bad, may well be quite keen to talk.

Asia

Taiwan and China

Has China blundered?

31 March 2005
From the Economist Print Edition

CHINA may already be regretting its decision to adopt an anti-secession law aimed at keeping Taiwan in check. For Taiwan's independence-minded president, Chen Shui-bian, it has been a political boost, enabling him to rally hundreds of thousands of people last weekend in one of the island's biggest ever demonstrations. And it has introduced Taiwan�hitherto mainly a problem between China and America�as a tricky new factor in China's relations with the European Union.

Privately, Chinese officials say the bill, which was adopted by China's rubber-stamp parliament on March 14th, arose from the perception last year that Mr Chen was likely to gain control of the legislature in polls last December, dislodging the Kuomintang (KMT) and its pro-unification allies. Mr Chen, the theory went, would then step up his efforts to assert Taiwan's independence.

Unexpectedly, the electorate disappointed Mr Chen. But the political momentum in China to adopt a bill threatening war against a secessionist Taiwan proved unstoppable, or so officials now say. They may have hoped that by keeping the law's wording in line with China's existing policy on Taiwan, repercussions abroad would be minimal and that Taiwan itself would sulkily brush it off.

China certainly did not intend to hand Mr Chen a political gift. The huge protest march in Taipei on March 26th, which Mr Chen attended, enabled him to demonstrate rare solidarity between supporters of formal independence and those who want to keep the status quo. Mr Chen's loss of support among the latter group had caused his party's difficulties in the recent polls. Pro-independence activists had been upset by Mr Chen's post-election moves to reach out to China.

And China probably did not anticipate the bill's impact in the European Union, where its passage is now being cited by some officials as grounds for delaying plans to lift a 16-year-old embargo on weapons sales to China. Shi Yinhong of Renmin University of China in Beijing says relations between China and the European Union, hitherto largely unfettered by the differences over security issues that mar ties between China and America, have suddenly become �much more complicated�.

But all is not lost. Mr Chen did not make any speech at the demonstration, clearly to avoid raising tensions further. And the KMT, calculating that the public would still prefer to avoid confrontation with China, has gone ahead with a goodwill trip to the mainland this week by the party's vice-chairman, Chiang Pin-kung. It is the first by an official KMT delegation to the mainland since 1949, when the party lost the civil war to the communists. Philip Yang of National Taiwan University in Taipei says that after a few weeks, Mr Chen, mindful of the need to capture the political middle ground, is likely to resume efforts to establish air links with China. China, eager to show that the law is not that bad, may well be quite keen to talk.