Dangerous games



Asia
America, China and Taiwan Dangerous games 15 July 2004 From the Economist Print Edition The turbulence ahead EVERY summer for the past ten years, China has pointedly rehearsed military drills or missile tests, or both, ready for a possible invasion of Taiwan. Unusually, this month's war games were given advance billing, and their aim was spelled out publicly: to warn Taiwan �separatists� and other �outside forces� that China will not tolerate any effort to split the island away. A similar message was delivered in private last week to the visiting Condoleezza Rice, President George Bush's national security adviser: China would not sit idly by, said its former president, Jiang Zemin, should Taiwan's leaders continue their drive for independence. China has said this, and more, before. But there is reason to think that America, China and Taiwan may be in for more turbulent times. One is Taiwan's outspokenly independence-minded president, Chen Shui-bian. Earlier this year he was re-elected with an increased share of the vote (albeit by only the slimmest of margins). Four years ago, China's heavy-fisted threats bolstered his support. This time, China backed off, but the result was no more to its liking. It will find Mr Chen an even more awkward customer if his Democratic Progressive Party wins enough seats to control parliament later this year. Mr Chen also annoyed President Bush earlier this year, by holding a referendum to coincide with his re-election bid, highlighting the threat to Taiwan from the 500 or so missiles China has pointed at the island. Although Mr Bush has been a strong supporter of Taiwan�agreeing to sell it advanced weaponry for its defence, and loosening tight restrictions on visiting politicians, including Mr Chen�he has also called on Taiwan not to take any actions unilaterally to change the status quo and so risk a conflict in the Taiwan Strait. America already has its hands full with the post-September 11th war on terrorism, and with the struggle to stabilise Iraq. It also needs China's help to rein in the nuclear ambitions of North Korea. But is Mr Chen listening? China fears he may yet propose a referendum on independence for Taiwan. At that point, says China, force cannot be ruled out. Meanwhile, a new constitution for Taiwan's vibrant new democracy is due to be drafted by 2006, and adopted by referendum in 2008�the year that Beijing hosts the Olympic games. Might Mr Chen miscalculate that China's leaders would be too concerned about a boycott in the run-up to the games to try thwart an independence bid? Despite the furore back in 2001 when the Bush administration agreed to help Taiwan buy more advanced aircraft, ships and submarines, Mr Chen's government has yet to make the purchases. He seems to take it for granted that, if he offends China too far, America will always rush to his rescue. But according to a new report, �Deterring Conflict in the Taiwan Strait� by Michael Swaine of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, America's defence planners are increasingly concerned that, while Taiwan drags its feet on military modernisation and Mr Chen plays his political games, China is rapidly acquiring the means to launch a rapid �decapitation� strike at Taiwan, before America would even have time to respond.

Asia

America, China and Taiwan

Dangerous games

15 July 2004
From the Economist Print Edition

The turbulence ahead

EVERY summer for the past ten years, China has pointedly rehearsed military drills or missile tests, or both, ready for a possible invasion of Taiwan. Unusually, this month's war games were given advance billing, and their aim was spelled out publicly: to warn Taiwan �separatists� and other �outside forces� that China will not tolerate any effort to split the island away. A similar message was delivered in private last week to the visiting Condoleezza Rice, President George Bush's national security adviser: China would not sit idly by, said its former president, Jiang Zemin, should Taiwan's leaders continue their drive for independence. China has said this, and more, before. But there is reason to think that America, China and Taiwan may be in for more turbulent times.

One is Taiwan's outspokenly independence-minded president, Chen Shui-bian. Earlier this year he was re-elected with an increased share of the vote (albeit by only the slimmest of margins). Four years ago, China's heavy-fisted threats bolstered his support. This time, China backed off, but the result was no more to its liking. It will find Mr Chen an even more awkward customer if his Democratic Progressive Party wins enough seats to control parliament later this year.

Mr Chen also annoyed President Bush earlier this year, by holding a referendum to coincide with his re-election bid, highlighting the threat to Taiwan from the 500 or so missiles China has pointed at the island. Although Mr Bush has been a strong supporter of Taiwan�agreeing to sell it advanced weaponry for its defence, and loosening tight restrictions on visiting politicians, including Mr Chen�he has also called on Taiwan not to take any actions unilaterally to change the status quo and so risk a conflict in the Taiwan Strait. America already has its hands full with the post-September 11th war on terrorism, and with the struggle to stabilise Iraq. It also needs China's help to rein in the nuclear ambitions of North Korea. But is Mr Chen listening?

China fears he may yet propose a referendum on independence for Taiwan. At that point, says China, force cannot be ruled out. Meanwhile, a new constitution for Taiwan's vibrant new democracy is due to be drafted by 2006, and adopted by referendum in 2008�the year that Beijing hosts the Olympic games. Might Mr Chen miscalculate that China's leaders would be too concerned about a boycott in the run-up to the games to try thwart an independence bid?

Despite the furore back in 2001 when the Bush administration agreed to help Taiwan buy more advanced aircraft, ships and submarines, Mr Chen's government has yet to make the purchases. He seems to take it for granted that, if he offends China too far, America will always rush to his rescue. But according to a new report, �Deterring Conflict in the Taiwan Strait� by Michael Swaine of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, America's defence planners are increasingly concerned that, while Taiwan drags its feet on military modernisation and Mr Chen plays his political games, China is rapidly acquiring the means to launch a rapid �decapitation� strike at Taiwan, before America would even have time to respond.