Beginners on trial



Beginners on trial
London, 17 May 2001 Taiwan’s new government, one year on “BLISS was it in that dawn to be alive,” wrote William Wordsworth of the French revolution. In Taiwan, one year ago on May 20th, a less tumultuous transfer of power produced similar sentiments, at least among many voters. Out went the Kuomintang (KMT), the party that had ruled Taiwan, until recent years often brutally, since the end of Japanese colonialism in 1945. In came the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), a new bunch of democratising idealists determined to sweep corrupt politics into history. Not everyone was blissful about the DPP. Its presidential candidate, Chen Shui-bian, had won a three-cornered race two months earlier only because the forces arrayed against him were, despite ideological similarities, so deeply divided on a personal level that they split the vote against him. That six out of ten voters were opposed to Mr Chen has been a handicap for his government since it took office a year ago. The media, mostly controlled by KMT supporters, have constantly derided the government’s competence, and have found a public only too eager to applaud their derision. Sometimes the criticism has been justified. An attempt by the government to stop the construction of the island’s fourth nuclear power plant was botched. The dispute over the future of the plant provoked a constitutional showdown between the government and the legislature—where the DPP is in a minority. The government then tried, with little effect, to whip up popular feeling against the plant. Its construction is now to go ahead. But the DPP has also been a victim. Though pro-KMT newspapers point out that the party has broken many of its election promises, they do not often give the reason for its failure: that the KMT-dominated legislature keeps a chokehold on the budget. As critics are keen to point out, things are indeed gloomy in the economy: unemployment threatens to top 4% and growth to fall below 5%, both for the first time in a generation. But much of the downturn is a result of the dramatic slowdown in the United States, Taiwan’s principal export market. One area where the government has done better than expected is in its policy towards China. The worry in the United States, Taiwan’s protector, was that the coming to power of what were seen as pro-independence hot-heads might push a bellicose China into carrying out its threat to invade. But the DPP has behaved with caution. A mark of its success is that tensions with China at present matter far less in the political debate than does the economy. The sagging economy could harm the DPP in the legislative elections due in December. But the government may take comfort that for many Taiwanese the KMT holds little appeal either. During the past year the KMT has changed from a staunch supporter of Taiwan’s sovereignty into a sly negotiator with China over the country’s future. The KMT’s vice-chairman, Vincent Siew, visited Beijing and Shanghai last week. For most Taiwanese, who want China kept at arm’s length, that was not alluring. And China’s rejection of Mr Siew’s idea of a cross-strait common market has damaged any KMT claim that it is better than the DPP at negotiating with China.

London, 17 May 2001

Taiwan’s new government, one year on

“BLISS was it in that dawn to be alive,” wrote William Wordsworth of the French revolution. In Taiwan, one year ago on May 20th, a less tumultuous transfer of power produced similar sentiments, at least among many voters. Out went the Kuomintang (KMT), the party that had ruled Taiwan, until recent years often brutally, since the end of Japanese colonialism in 1945. In came the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), a new bunch of democratising idealists determined to sweep corrupt politics into history.

Not everyone was blissful about the DPP. Its presidential candidate, Chen Shui-bian, had won a three-cornered race two months earlier only because the forces arrayed against him were, despite ideological similarities, so deeply divided on a personal level that they split the vote against him. That six out of ten voters were opposed to Mr Chen has been a handicap for his government since it took office a year ago. The media, mostly controlled by KMT supporters, have constantly derided the government’s competence, and have found a public only too eager to applaud their derision.

Sometimes the criticism has been justified. An attempt by the government to stop the construction of the island’s fourth nuclear power plant was botched. The dispute over the future of the plant provoked a constitutional showdown between the government and the legislature—where the DPP is in a minority. The government then tried, with little effect, to whip up popular feeling against the plant. Its construction is now to go ahead. But the DPP has also been a victim. Though pro-KMT newspapers point out that the party has broken many of its election promises, they do not often give the reason for its failure: that the KMT-dominated legislature keeps a chokehold on the budget. As critics are keen to point out, things are indeed gloomy in the economy: unemployment threatens to top 4% and growth to fall below 5%, both for the first time in a generation. But much of the downturn is a result of the dramatic slowdown in the United States, Taiwan’s principal export market.

One area where the government has done better than expected is in its policy towards China. The worry in the United States, Taiwan’s protector, was that the coming to power of what were seen as pro-independence hot-heads might push a bellicose China into carrying out its threat to invade. But the DPP has behaved with caution. A mark of its success is that tensions with China at present matter far less in the political debate than does the economy.

The sagging economy could harm the DPP in the legislative elections due in December. But the government may take comfort that for many Taiwanese the KMT holds little appeal either. During the past year the KMT has changed from a staunch supporter of Taiwan’s sovereignty into a sly negotiator with China over the country’s future. The KMT’s vice-chairman, Vincent Siew, visited Beijing and Shanghai last week. For most Taiwanese, who want China kept at arm’s length, that was not alluring. And China’s rejection of Mr Siew’s idea of a cross-strait common market has damaged any KMT claim that it is better than the DPP at negotiating with China.